A market boom💥😄 and a market BOOM💥😢

📣 Owner Speaking 🗣️

A book you ought to read is 1929 by Ross Sorkin.

Teasing Sorkin aside — a very insightful look into the way money gets moved in a big bank financial realm without reading like a f*cking text book.

I’d tell you if it was boring, and although it’s hard to imagine myself as an athletic 50-year-old man 😆 it reads tastefully and like a bio movie.

It’s about the stock market crash of 1929 from a more historically interesting first-person-shooter perspective.

Whether you know about stocks or not, it’s a user-friendly look on how the watch works when it comes to the financial market without trying to be.

Most of the legal aspects of the market have changed since 1929, but the motions of money today seem to use the exact same concepts and methods — more so adapting to get around the law than following it.

It holds an eerie parallel to now’s economy and the AI/crypto boom, and holds a stark reminder of just how fragile our economy is.

How easy it can be to find an institution creating an unstable Jenga set of money when the tangibility of it is so far away.

From my own perspective, since my childhood we’ve always been in one financial crisis or another.

That said, we are taught in a prideful and hubris-like manner how invulnerable the U.S. is; that its institutions will always hold.

Most cases that was true — but within the past 10 years that’s all been eroding for the U.S., and those institutions now are just about outright gone with Trump’s forceful push to put himself as their new priority.

So the lessons of that crash still permeate today.

AI companies are brandishing options instead of cash since they don’t have it — essentially using stock as credit to get what they need.

Between things like that, government oversteps, and lack of regulations for a monetary item (crypto), 1929 had the same concept towards assets and debt leverage.

That said, talent reduction, labor strains and AI displacement, and fallout from ROI failure is still a little further ahead.

💭 So I implore you to think about something else too — something very realistic that can happen near term…

The timeliness of this book is on, as just last week Trump sank the market for a third time this year — this time with trade war talk on China.

The market has so far adapted from its first loss taking a buy the dip approach: sell off high, buy back low, wait for him to back off and take the gain.

But what if the market just didn’t go back up?

What if we are hit with a financial fall out, war, natural disaster — and the market never goes up?

What if Trump locks his jaw on something you can’t talk him out of, as he is known to do? Something that won’t affect him negatively, he can gain off of, and everyone else suffers for.

He would essentially just crash the market sinking all those AI and crypto bets to pieces — and since the institutions lack the balls, he wouldn’t be held accountable in time.

The market is betting that he will be impeached. Four years would be tough to last with his focuses in mind.

So right now you’ll hear a divide between narratives for the economy — and it’s because we are in what’s called a K Market.

Meaning only a few upper class incomes do better going up ↗️ and everyone else does worse going down ↘️.

The country is pissed but they are waiting for the system to do something about it.

In their eyes what can they do about it short of beheading people and yelling — which would be condemned.

And shouldn’t this system do something for them since that’s its purpose for existence?

If you think about it, that’s what Trump has always wanted — an elitist class taking advantage of others because they feel they are better than you.

Essentially he is creating a caste-like system and a larger class divide designed to separate your income and existence further and further beneath the wealthy.

Consumers do not like the market and the economy is dog sh*t for them — for employment and buying power, dollar devaluation, immigrant labor diminishment, and more importantly cost of goods due to tariff implementation and inflation.

Which is why we call it a recession. Because you’re in one.

Because you’re in one, and bigger companies are not — because of the super mergers, AI buzz and crypto buzz bringing in cash from loans or investment floats, and treasury influx caused by a communist-like government investment into private businesses out of insider schemes and personal relationships.

The last one really damaging because it can limit competition — which capitalism thrives on.

Competition and capitalism force innovation and allow for new ideas and companies to come about.

And with immigration visas we bring in international talent — which other countries lack — which is what has pulled the U.S. ahead all these years.

Trump wants a monopoly for himself — and he just created a bank to make people indebted to him to do it.

💣 These larger businesses will begin to hurt with consumer confidence diminishing — but the big one is banks.

Which is exactly why you should be concerned about bank lending right now — because if AI, crypto, and so on don’t pan out we face a real problem similar to the real estate fallout and recession.

Couple that with them allowing huge risk dynamics from crypto to seep into your 401k — which could nuke it.

Trump has friends and has himself benefited from that last crash bailouts.

Bailouts are a great way to avoid consequences with your money for Trump.

Ironically housing prices are not decreasing with federal rate cuts — a lot is due to higher prices for builders directly related to the tariffs.

Thus the K mart (market) is not good at all — as you can see from the meme all those companies went out of business.

The United States has a huge international presence for the USD and stock market, and people themselves in a free market and country don’t want the rigged system being created — and it will likely come to blows over it.

Kmarket, Kmart, recession — call it a f*cking burrito, it’s just not good.

The AI boom is booming even in a down economy and is likely being held back by it.

So there’s still plenty of room for more to come once and if that gets fixed.

A fed rate drop is likely to come, although not having the job dynamics is something that will skew that if the shutdown goes really long term.

Certainly if the tariffs get removed that cut will and should be big — if the tariffs stay, things will remain too uncertain because of president dumba** who doesn’t seem to know, understand, or care about what a tariff does short of headlines.

💥 That said — like most booms, these companies will eventually pop or drop as we scrutinize their production and value towards gains, as with most new technologies.

This will mean that they will either fall apart, get taken apart, or get eaten by forming other companies together.

As seen with most mergers though, few will handle their size well enough to be of genuine worth and interest.

So that AI market in the long term will narrow — and competition will help with that in good and bad ways depending which end of the sharp stick you are on.

🤖 OpenAI though seems to have a good focus of where to take ChatGPT themselves — as long as they don’t go overboard and corner themselves too much.

Something that can happen with excessive partnerships and competition.

Nvidia’s market will get eaten into, but so long as they optimize forever I doubt we’ll see much shift given the level of militaristic investment — same with Palantir.

Beyond that, OpenAI becomes the main — if not one of its only — usable tools, and everything else just a body part feeding it.

Google is keeping up like most communist countries where they are just copying OpenAI; it’s one of the first times in a while we’ve seen them on the back heel of innovation for something they can’t just buy out.

Apple has long since been dawdling and Tim Cook isn’t really making any moves of significance.

Microsoft has taken some huge strides and risks — but the ones that have made headway made serious headway.

We know, or at least WE do, that ceg is their main energy North Star product.

They have yet to fully incorporate it though as a sole solution to AI’s energy problem, so there still is a final piece of the puzzle we’ve yet to see.

Probably due to the fact we don’t really have a clear focus on the future of energy — and the U.S. is so clearly moving short term in their thinking and focus with this administration.

So like it or not, OpenAI will continue to move and is a tech superpower of new forward-moving proportions — well ahead of most, right now.

That said, like most on the tip of the spear, it will hit the problems first — dealing with legality, ethics, AI fallout, and so on.

But like most of these companies, and due to its size and military symbiosis, courts will likely wrist-slap its way through, purposely ignoring any monopolistic notions.

🧠 While the media focuses on ego-stroking and juice-swallowing wealth evaluations, we forget that nobody cares 🙌😂

The Trump family wealth is a house of cards — one that can only be built so high.

What seems to have most people captivated is the corruption and how they are stealing money from the people of the U.S.

Makes for a good crime doc on Netflix.

The thing is, once Trump goes down, his kids really don’t have the same flare and most of their wealth is piled in really volatile areas of trade and investment like crypto.

The stability there can change overnight — and most of the Kushner deals will likely get torpedoed as well by larger wealth funds.

Criminal investigations will swoop, leaving most of the money dwindled.

By extension, most of the treasury is being mishandled — so on top of debt accrual the money is being spent to cover expenses and huge mistakes like the farm industry costs.

This will essentially erase most gains the tariffs did to begin with if this goes on.

If tariffs are halted, the damage to the treasury will be lessened — but the need to budget will increase, which the Trump administration has no concept of.

💸 It’s a great example of poor wealth management because large portions of both his personal and professional accrual will likely lead to nothing.

There’s no permanence in any of what they’ve done really.

Extending that further, and by shopping around for opinion, we see that most of their “allies” and members of their admin know this and find them to be really well… stupid.

So they’ve maneuvered to do the opposite and build lasting momentum for themselves while waiting for him (Trump) to fall apart.

They just don’t care or don’t like him at all — which is interesting to us because we really start to see the results.

Murdoch family is getting ready for succession, the Ellisons are buying up media to control opinion for the future, and so on and on.

It’s an age of opportunists — and we’re not sure the Trump family know what’s coming as these people will seek to fill the void after Trump’s destruction (which they, underlyingly, relish).

And even if it doesn’t come, they are creating win-win scenarios for themselves.

Trump’s family will likely wind up much like Hussein’s and Bin Laden’s.

The intricate extension of this philosophy is AI — while unrelated, it sits on an inflating growth bubble.

Most of it has yet to see returns and ROI but it’s expanding.

We are beginning to see how it will be in all things — it’s the new internet or .com phenomenon.

We are also starting to see with OpenAI’s monetary strategy incorporating Figma, Expedia, Etsy — a new form of SEO take hold that will change the way and structure of AI as well as its user interactions and its returns.

Microsoft and OpenAI could form into something both multidimensional and adaptive to external environments, apps, and software — thus comes a new era of Google and Apple dominance as a 3rd great power comes to fruition.

🕰️ The clock is simply always ticking towards an inevitable future.

🌾 So one thing we should talk about and haven’t yet — the farm economy.

The tariffs have destroyed our exports and production due to price hikes and pricing model overhauls that are direct results of president dumba** of the USA and the tariffs.

Cost of production has risen and labor shortages have hit — in part due to that, but also due to immigration policies that have dented labor supply because of harassment coming from our government.

What you have to understand is that these crops are cyclical because of the seasonal variations of the U.S.

So the prime U.S. advantage for certain crops is a short yearly window — and other international countries then fill the void after that U.S. window passes.

🌱 So let’s talk about a big one… soybeans.

Soybeans sound like something you don’t need, but they provide the base ingredient for A LOT of products and foods.

With the damage to U.S.–China relations and other international markets that use that U.S. export directly because of tariffs, those countries have turned away from the U.S. to get their soy cheaper — turning to places like Argentina.

Trump’s U.S. secretary of the treasury Scott Bessent, who has increased the treasury wallet by taking money from you the consumer with the increase of tariffs, vouched for a $24 billion dispersal of those U.S. funds to Argentina.

Scott Bessent has a very sketchy close long-standing relationship with Argentina’s bond investor Rob Citrone.

Rob Citrone has had previous financial involvement with Bessent’s personal finances and has directly benefited from this money dispersal — and in turn Scott Bessent likely did something illegal or barely legal.

Regardless, he made money — and in turn Argentina used the money to reduce the prices and cost of their soy exports to (you guessed it) China.

China, a main purchaser of the product.

Now that the seasons are changing, the U.S. leverage and window for soy is gone and our farm economy has suffered because of choices like these, where they make money and you the people don’t see a dime.

So naturally, farmers of the south and everywhere in the U.S. are pissed because of the harm done to the agricultural sector and market.

Why? Because it just means more.

🇺🇸 So we just had an enlightening conversation on the political culture of the U.S.

You have to understand that oversight committees aren’t meant to be performative — they can be — but they are essentially a way of touching base to get sworn statements about a question you may have.

There is actually no real employment recourse for any of it.

Only the president and the heads of the orgs can fire and hire — and that there is the USA’s greatest hubris.

We thought a president would always be a nice guy, and that shame would be enough for people to leave.

The president every four years peacefully hands over power out of the goodness of his heart — la la la 🌈 we move on or he gets impeached.

Congress will always get along and impeach wrongful actions — la la la 🌈.

We’ll always swear people into congress right away and always uphold the voting system because we like it — la la la 🌈.

The judicial system will never operate politically — la la la 🌈.

I mean the majority of the U.S. system has functioned off of tradition, not stone-etched law.

If you’ve ever been to, lived in, fought in places of strife — you know how colossally ignorant that is.

You know how conniving and malicious people can truly be.

Che Guevara was somebody Mandela believed to be a complete person — an ideal we should all strive for.

In truth, post his doctoral work, he definitely had his flaws; but one thing that struck me is he genuinely believed that revolutions could never happen without weapons.

I thought on that — and it’s because he came from a place in the world that was so long-standingly corrupt.

In the U.S. we had 250 years of met standards — even with Nixon, who respectfully stepped down.

It was both an anomaly, beautiful, but arrogant of us to think we could never seep as low as those regions.

Those regions tend to have violent overthrows out of necessity — because someone takes advantage of the lack of written laws and the openings in systems and less professional militaries and law enforcement agencies, born out of a lack of generational freedom away from such corruption.

The U.S. is seeing now the flaws we did know were there — speak to any constitutional law professor and they’ll tell you we’ve always had these openings.

These are just being exposed because the quality of persons running them has greatly diminished.

A lesser man corrupting what was a corruptible system — just one that wasn’t out of principle.

It was hubris and numenorean of us to think no one would ever do it, no congress would ever allow it, no legal system would ever permit it.

So why would they answer questions that have no recourse should they not?

Why would they do things that would hurt them if they don’t want to?

The concept of U.S. political culture has shifted to a corrupt state saying: what can you do about it?

And it wouldn’t be a far cry that a populace that has been so coddled wouldn’t have the balls to fight physically.

If the elections aren’t upheld, if the law isn’t — then what are you going to do about it?

We vote 🤷

So as a notice — there will be a No Kings Rally on October 18th.

So our owner has stated: send a picture of you protesting peacefully, exercising your foundational American right.

We won’t post it — we’ll give you the week off.

Because it is your right and duty to fight for democracy against domestic regimes.

It is a right that is literally so American our founders stated it first.

It is ironic that Republicans call themselves such when a republic is thought to be a collection of provinces that act independently together — free of a ruler.

They are so incapable of hiding their failures/corruption that there is little to no American that sees them as anything else.

At best, there are a radical few who like them like that, or an even fewer that feel they minimally benefit in some way but suffer in 90% of other areas.

The true evil of this country is, as it is now, so monumentally evident to be Trump and his minions.

It is also true now that what they are doing by lying en masse isn’t trying to sway people (although they hope to benefit in that way) — but like most regimes, they are trying to propagate a narrative to cover a very brutal and forceful attempt to submit the will of the people.

We said it will be Trump vs the people — and we’re there.

They will paint you as a false danger (cough Antifa cough), lie when they can, and turn organizations against you using that to put you down.

Some Republicans will turn away from it, others will argue against it, a lot will capitulate.

⚖️ It is very simple — our government was built for the people, and Americans want it to work for them, not the other way around.

So as things are still shut down, I think a big question in everyone’s mind is:

💭 Will the market crash?

The economy isn’t good at all.

Is it a blatant recession? Meh 🤷 we are right there — so yeah, that’s what we here would call it.

We are barely there and there’s still some corrective things to be done for the tariffs which are driving us down — by removing them and then separating Trump from apolitical institutions via courts.

Is there too much bet on AI? Yes — most haven’t seen much return and they are really floating money through buzz.

Eventually (like we said) it will likely get survival-of-the-fittest for them at some point, but we have some time till then — and we’ll see more when this country changes hands of power and we get some clear direction.

Is unemployment sh*t? Yes — long unemployment is a huge problem and it’s growing.

Is crypto getting a little too much forward movement? Yes — while some will turn out okay, most won’t, and it lacks basic security exchange regulations.

In short — it will come down to the banks 🏦 and regulations on rate cuts and the amount of debt accrual.

Our government isn’t really preparing properly — so a bailout will certainly hurt.

So when, how large? Meh 🤷

Just watch out for those just-mentioned flying Mario Kart turtle shells 🐢 — and if and when we are post-Trump, as there will be a lot of fixes needed, we’ll likely see the full damage exposure.