Clarity in the Market's Confusion

Robert Magana
Jun 4
6 min read

Market Skepticism & Our Success

In a world of valid skepticism towards the markets—based on an economy that has been shaky, to say the least—we’ve navigated and succeeded since the company’s inception in March.

We took unmoving, non-strategic potential monetary capital and grew it through an economic U.S. and global environment that rivals the impact of most catastrophic earthquakes. At the end of this article is a graph showing our success but we want to explain to you what we saw happen to the markets that gave guidance and translated into that success.

1. The Pandemic Fallout

COVID Recovery:

Right now, market volatility is due to a variety of things, which we can get into.

Number one: The market was already recovering from a massive natural disaster—namely, COVID.

It’s not that we didn’t navigate the pandemic well as a country from an economic standpoint, it’s that:

People, who are normally panicky and paranoid in the best of times, didn’t and
A bureaucratic system—which, at its fastest, moves at a snail’s pace in the U.S.—had to change instantly, multiple times.

Systemic Lag & Consumer Panic:

The economic instability that nearly pushed us into another recession really came from:

People who panicked and reasonably so, and
Markets that simply couldn’t shift fast enough—especially when it came to rapidly moving operations into remote or pandemic-operable environments and their supply chains.

While companies that survived did adjust—and considering the environment, did so relatively well—the average consumer bunkered down for what felt like the apocalypse.

Slow Legal Structures:

We did recover once things reopened, but:

From a business standpoint, things just can’t move quickly given the U.S. structure for businesses—both legally, production wise, and contractually.
Businesses also took major cultural hits and had to readjust to massive changes, by trying to refocus and repurpose and recover from the loss of internal knowledge and senior leadership from layoffs and mergers.

The Remote Work Realization:

And then came a hard truth out of Pandora’s box:

We didn’t actually have to go into work to get work done and run successful businesses.

This reset cultural dynamics—almost back to an infantile stage in terms of business evolution.

Very few adults in the room who really knew how to adapt,
And even fewer whose voices led to actionable changes.

Resistance to Change:

Most businesses—and some still to this day—tried to pretend like nothing had happened, trying to go right back to the way things were before.

But that’s the thing with innovation born from circumstance—

You can’t go back.You have to adapt and move forward.

This left businesses and an already unstable economy in a position where they had to recover again.

2. Elections, Inflation & Confusion

Price Confusion:

Our number two here came about during the election and the recovery from inflation.

Price dynamics shifted alongside the need to supplement costs caused by supply chain disruptions.
Consumer behavior changed due to fear.

Instead of prices dropping after covid, they just kind of… stayed the same.

Supply chains may have recovered, but the costs never really did.

Poor Messaging:

The previous administration in an effort to reach the public decided to tout slowing inflation. It wasn’t celebrating a drop in cost of living—just that it was slowing in it's rise of cost to you.

From a consumer’s perspective you were with validity saying:

“Hell no, things aren’t getting better. I’m still paying $20 for what used to be a $3 Happy Meal.”

From an economic and political standpoint they were saying:

“We’re slowing the rise of costs.”

They did a terrible job communicating that.

Political Expectations vs. Reality:

Avoiding a long rant about the election, they could’ve handled a number of things better.

“Trump 2.0” came around, and people assumed it would be like last time. But:

The administration had none of the guardrails from before.
The stability in our economy and markets wasn’t there like it once was.

Naturally, investors reacted.

Smarter Heads Knew:

While some rode the optimism, smarter, cooler heads knew:

Damage to supply chains and demand structures was coming.
As soon as the tariffs hit—boom—an already fragile post-inflation environment got slammed again.
Business structures, already slow, had to completely rework pricing models.....again.

3. Tariffs & Trade War

Tariffs. Fking tariffs.**

Sudden Chaos:

It might not have been such an issue if they were more targeted.

But instead, they hit everything from everywhere. These were on top of international agreements and contracts that were supposed to last for years—and they all changed overnight. So did the price of everything, everywhere.

People didn’t—and arguably still don’t—know where to put their money.

Supply Chain Paralysis:

The fear came down to supply and demand models which now had to shift instantly.....again.

But you can’t just say:

“Oh, it’s just steel” or “just minerals.”

It’s everything, with every country.

Naturally, the markets reacted—and went down. Way down. Like historically bad way down.

Trust Collapsed:

Yes, there are dynamics with countries like China and India we still need to work out when it comes to exports and imports. But trying to do everything with everyone all at once leaves people unsure.

And worse—there’s the issue of the U.S' good-faith standing.

The “Good-Faith” Breakdown:

Imagine:

I borrow a dollar from you every day, pay you back every week, and that goes on for years. Then I ask for $20, then another $20 and another… then I stop paying, then pay you some here and there, then ask for even more, then don't then pay someone else, then blame you...

That’s a loss of good faith because you just can't be sure of what I'll do now

But in the U.S., we’re not talking about a dollar we're talking about treaties, alliances, and trade deals.

Now, countries (and markets) are left wondering:

“Will these deals even last?”

And many assume we’ll just change our minds the next day. The loss of America's golden credit standing was perhaps inevitable, but it was also a perfect real life reaction to the loss of that good-faith standing.

4. Wars & the AI Arms Race

A Timeline of Tech:

AI and tech have been accelerating since I was born, I've literally seen it move physically.

As a kid: dial-up, corded phones, pagers.
As a teen: palm pilots, flip phones.
As an adult: advanced algorithmic code in everything.

So yeah, AI was always moving.

I find it ironic were just now calling it an arms race when we were racing when I was three years old.

What came next was the Delayed Response to Threats:

Russia and China—especially during the PRISM era (2010)—made major cyber moves into tapping the U.S. infrastructure and it's innovations.

We didn’t understand the scope until Trump 1.0.
We didn’t respond until 2020.

That’s a decade of lost time.

U.S. Tech Lead Holds—Barely:

Still the moves from Nvidia, OpenAI, Microsoft and it's sub-investments and a few others that led the charge was really something to see.

Imagine leading the market while your competitors are spying and copying—and you still pace the market. Now that’s impressive.

Global Conflicts Escalate:

Syria leaves a vacuum and an unchecked Russia
We leave Afghanistan leaving an unstable Middle-East to fend for Itself
Russia invades Ukraine
Israel–Palestine reignites

The defense sector then became critical, especially for the EU.

The Hole We Didn’t Fill:

Tariffs then weakened the U.S. position in AI and the Defense sector which now became an extremely in-Demand item
We paused Tarrifs. Realizing the mistake.
We delayed. We still weren't given any market assurances to what were doing we still don't know what the government intends.
We partially recovered. Investors saw short term gains and some companies produced

But we never created a clear path forward we still don't have one designated as a country.

Result: Fragmented Market

The demand still exists.

But now, countries no longer feel they can put all their chips—literally or figuratively—into the U.S. basket.

A fragmented market is born people scatter and look for options while dealing with a bi-polar U.S. that you can't operate in good faith with anymore but still has a large consumer market. But the system doesn't allow for stability there and it's apparent.