From the Trenches to the Trends: A Raw Look at the Market

Robert Magana
Jun 20
5 min read

Macro Market Overview

So as we look at the market, let’s take a macro-level approach first.

The GDP has sunk pretty drastically just in the last six months since the new administration. This isn't surprising and is generally expected, since the new administration wanted its tariff change. The overall budget rose in debt, then fell, and continued moving in that motion.

Interest rates rose to protect the yield rates—which, like it or not, was and is actually the correct move. With inflation rates higher, people invest and spend less, worried about the market and dealing with an overall higher cost of living. Movement of money slows, and if banks get too heavily impacted, we face recession.

Labor Market Observations

Unemployment rates are the same, but are unusually low for a market that has very few jobs available. More likely, companies want to appear as if they are hiring, and people are afraid to leave their jobs due to market volatility.

As a result, they are staying in roles where they probably won’t grow, due to complacency and uncertainty.

Personal Experience and Perspective

I was at a job that, to be honest, had this feeling of neglect and willful blindness by the company itself. On one hand, they wanted consumers to know, “We care about your security and protection,” and on the other, they wanted sole focus on revenue growth—which filtering models and shielding would slow.

So it wasn’t ideal, but I wanted them to be better. They actually sank the second I left—no known relation to me, likely just the market and growth stagnation.

Background & Strategy

That said, I’ve coordinated with high-value assets in the military, law enforcement, and other strategic analysts over the course of my career. I’ve had direct, hands-on tutelage from some of the smartest entrepreneurs I’ve ever known, at the very top level of Smart Circle.

It wasn’t because I was lucky—it was because I had the mindset they loved. I was a sculpted Spartan stuck building chairs. I knew I could do a lot, but opportunity is thin for a Hispanic male in the U.S., and in general, for anybody right now. What I had though was a minimal amount of capital.

So, looking at the macro dynamics, I dove into industry analysis, did my assessment, and moved the money in the right places for the company.

Market Chain Reactions

With the market as described:

We are producing less because of higher costs.
Prices are going up to cover those damages.
People are afraid to leave jobs due to volatility, which has been consistent since COVID.
Companies are investing and innovating less, meaning cash flow slows.

Eventually, either companies eat the cost, or layoffs increase—and the market suffers.

Sector-Level Breakdown

Tangible Consumer Goods

These are heavily affected due to:

Manufacturing cost increases
Supply chain costs rising
Higher cost of living

Growth is more likely to sink, and the ones that do grow will be anomalous or minimal.

So it's not the worst market, but the safest companies are those least likely to fluctuate—think: Coca-Cola, Nike. They have experience surviving. Their consumer spend is lower, but they know how to stabilize. Not ideal, since the growth they have isn’t what they deserve, but they manage losses well.

Energy

Energy is a short-term gain, in my opinion. I won’t get into detail here since we’ve discussed that before so not as exciting I know haha.

Defense

Defense is poised to grow—it's unfortunately the perfect opportunity to take advantage of chaos in a variety of ways depending on your goals.

Just flip on the news and you’ll see: global conflicts are escalating. Most military strategists aren’t stupid.... most—they know they need assets to beef up defenses and prepare for both opportunists and sustained conflict.

Production will rise
Cybersecurity is also in demand

Having worked in that space from a defense stand point, I can tell you: there's never been a better time to strike than now if your a bad actor. With so much distraction and U.S. volatility, the attack surface is huge for private and public sector attacks.

Technology

Tech is moving because we need production, innovation, and application just to keep up. It’s like an arms race. The US and China lead this by a mile, most other countries are content to learn afterwards and say they are doing the same, we see that now with India and southeast Asian markets.

And because it's direct-to-consumer and scalable almost instantly, there’s a lot of money to be made.

There’s more to be said:

Tariff impact on supply chains (not good)
Manufacturing and energy costs
Data housing, which lacks efficiencies

All of these are vital to fuel the industry. (Hint, hint.)

Finance Sector

The finance sector is being forced to navigate short-term realities due to volatility. While markets haven't moved much immediately, if you're smarter, you’ll see where things are going.

Don’t look just at the surface. The ocean looks simple above, but currents and ecosystems tell the true story.

Quarterly results haven’t shown as much damage yet—but that doesn’t mean it’s not coming or already there. In fact, the current quarterlies show it's just beginning.

So businesses are likely heading toward:

Larger losses
Higher unemployment
Persistent inflation

Interest rates are being held. On the surface, a cut seems okay, but look deeper—the foundations are shaky. Cutting too early could be damaging because we are just now seeing the beginning signs of these things now, and it's a lot easier to cut than to raise.

So financially, we companies need to operate on: