Well... This is f*cked

Macro economics have begun to seep into various industries as previously predicted by us so now B2B dynamics are getting eaten at quarterly expectations. While revenue is getting beaten the fear is towards the future.

Over the past 12 months, real GDP growth in the United States slowed to an estimated ~2.0%, down from stronger rates in previous years, with slower activity partly attributed to policy uncertainty and trade disruptions [OECD]. Consumer spending and investment have shown signs of resilience but with mixed momentum. Business sentiment indicators have also softened due to geopolitical and economic policy shifts.

Tech/AI works in first energy which powers it, next servers and storage, privacy data which feeds it, then the function that transmits it, then software/apps/ai/etc… Now the US has long held integrity to ensure fair use and also safe use of the products along with legal compliance. But that has been eroding since the early 2000s. Less punitive, slow moving politics, and no accountability. These companies never cared about the US they care about hitting their expected revenue margins. Now amplify that with the current Trump administration. Self investment and misused products and tools, and oh hey the added bonus of 0 transparency, because you have an administration who encourages doing what you want as long as the president sees a buck out of it, never mind the BLS.

If you're a user of this product, you look for alternatives. The EU has international assets they can shift B2B financing. Take Palantir who’s allowing governments to use their tech to fuel controversial applications and surveillance systems. If you’re a different country watching what were your allies doing this to itself, it makes you think what would they do to us. Companies become more restrictive out of need and to control their expenses in a down fear driven economy. Places like ad tech get diminished as companies look to use only what they feel is effective and necessary which is ironically bigger companies to them.

Now imagine if it was guns and weapons. Imagine you’re a field commander who doesn’t want to shoot a missile you can’t trust. So manufacturing starts to shift as do investment and companies begin to eat it when it comes to future projections as the market expects them to continue as usual but they can’t.

Trump’s tariffs have imploded our market. Over the past year the effective tariff rate on imports increased sharply from the long-run average of ~2.5% to over ~10–14%, significantly tightening cost structures for businesses and consumers [OECD]. That has coincided with a widening U.S. trade deficit — rising back toward historic levels (~$57 billion in late 2025) as imports recovered strongly and exports flagged [Kiplinger]. Higher import costs have contributed to elevated consumer prices.

His aggression towards allies and US institutions have made them start to turn from the dollar to their own euro, the tariffs have constrained budgets due to costs and have raised prices, businesses see a time to wait out and survive if they can so budget gets constrained and jobs condense. The U.S. unemployment rate hovered around 4.3–4.4% in late 2025 and early 2026 — modest by historical standards but with fragile job growth and wage pressures moderating [Reuters / OECD data].

The economy’s headline inflation has also remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with core inflation persisting near ~2.6–2.8% over the past year, partly influenced by costs tied to tariffs and geopolitical pressures [Reuters / OECD data].

The K market creates a building built on sand with no foundation. People can't leave their job, they can't find jobs, and their lives are more expensive everywhere so their debt amasses. Now maybe they refinance before excess debt to credit ratio, but most can't really do anything but get further in a hole. People are buckling up to fight their own government.

For earnings and investors this makes them skittish and very conscious of the news which can cause volatile markets. Equity markets showed mixed performance recently, with major indices fluctuating on jobs data and inflation expectations and interest rate outlooks [AP News]. Volatility partly stems from uncertainty about rate cuts, corporate earnings growth, and global trade conditions.

So as these macro dynamics seep in don’t expect earnings to bail you out. The US needs more than anything is an integrity check on the Trump administration, and a really aggressive one, if they ever want things to be great again.