Long Term Bangers
- 3 days ago
- 6 min read
We often go over short term trends and that's mainly because this idiot of a president of this US autocracy has made it so that you have to with his erratic and often delusional actions. That said over time short term actions reflect long term trends.
So we dove in to provide an overview on some picks and why they've carried and if they will continue. As a long term investor across the market it's been bleeding out as predicted by us earlier this year, slow but inevitable with the poor policies and deals being made by our government. Naturally one of the largest economies in the world failing had a negative impact and has sank the market, especially for US companies. Looking at the board most companies have lost all winnings and growth and have dipped on the 1 year basis. They are almost all down across the entire market YTD. Not good for a variety of companies who are and have been relying on stock and earnings bumps.
That said there are a few winners YTD and on the long-term overlook which we'll actually list below by ticker and explanation.
Coke- Coca Cola has consistently survived and shown great capability and movement while not buzzy or short term up gainer it consistently spews long-term growth and will continue to do so, surviving logistical struggles and remaining an anchor force in the market.
TRV- Travelers has gotten a boost from all the threatening air around the planet and naturally insurance often shoots straight during financial issues and they've carried.
AAPL- Apple has continue to move up YTD, as political humiliation died down it's been boosty to the profile on long-term moves and will continue just not as radically as other tech developers much like google it will have to either continue to absorb new trends or learn how to create them.
FDX - Fed Ex came through with innovation and cost structure that mitigated most problems for companies and shippers at some point it's growth will likely even out but for now it's up and up. Be aware of short term fluctuation with logistical channels being so important to the global market and commerce.
RY- Canada's bank has become a trusted force and international place of the west in the US absences and Trumps international relations failings this has pooled money there out of need for stability and future growth expectations and appreciation for their financial leader of the country.
GM- General motors has been growing consistently but whether this survives post Trump remains to be seen as most of the tarrifs will likely get killed for their stupidity.
SU- Suncor Energy is a relatively new banger but people are looking to Energy for the future and they're certainly a part of it.
BP - Oil will always be essential but expect some dips post trump as concern will be for overbuys with trump gone the oil industry will take a short hit but a hit none the less.
MS- Morgan Stanley has shown reslience and steady pacing still to this day one of the best savings accounts in existence and they've been pacing most banks in the market.
WBD - Warner brothers is a different animal but they've grown YTD consistently their deal will bring some strain and risk in the short term but they've been solid so far on their own.
IBKR - Interactive Brokers has seen it's short term ups and downs so be concious of that but they have so far shown good YTD growth.
JPM - JP Morgan chase is another Morgan Stanley like animal I do think that they will take a hit once the epstein investigations for financials punch into their network but ultimately they've been solid on yearly growth and show no immediate signs other than that of slowing down.
Intel- Intel is the only other known alternative for the manufacturers in Taiwan and before you get all nationalist rude American on it Taiwan supports the entire planets chip and technology manufacturers for every major company including NVDIA. If they go the planets economy and all those big tech companies go too. That said intel is the alt but has so far not shown the capability to produce of equal quality to TSMC.
BA - Boeing bounced back and likely will continue to grow should they maintain their large sell contracts. That said most defense companies are down right now and the defense wave ride is over.
Citigroup - same thing good banking company at least from a financial standpoint and consistent in long-term growth there may be some fluctuation there come regulation post Trump.
HPE- Hewlet has always been widely spread out in the tech community and as they chop off some of their more useless investments they've been growing pretty consistent YTD.
BK- Bank of New York I think the name says enough.
Google- meh f*ck google but they've done well; hard to stop a tech monopoly the only concern here would be antitrust violations since they commit them all the time.
HWM- Howmet is a lesser known defense company that's been productive throughout the year. Like we said though the defense wave from IRAN and other conflicts is flat and dead. That said they've been solid throughout the years from a long-term perspective it's maybe slightly more riskier than these other ones but so far they've proven to be a hitter and if they keep it up they'll continue to bump your profile over time.
Csco- Cisco has had a lot of hate come it's way for not being the first to the whole AI boom but say what you'd like they've pumped the numbers, short term I'd expect maybe a little more drop but so far they've been outtrending the market on the long-term and unless they get more heavily challeneged I don't see that changing long term.
AMZN- Amazon is broad and so far they've made some good moves to keep themselves relevant their longterm survival will likely revolve around that and mitigating their own costs but so far have been yearly up if down based on buzz week to week.
FCX - Freeport might be a big boy based on the whole tarrif scare and short term they tend to fluctuate but they've been big on growth long-term and they will see a pretty significant bump post trump and post tarrif damage which will last a little while.
NVDA- Nvidia I mean a lot's been said so we won't spew a bunch of stuff about it they literally own the entire market but they heavily rely on Taiwan so be aware of that.
TSM- TSMC has seen some odd scares throughout the year, everyone is scared of NVIDIA and the chip market for AI and TSMC owns 90% of the manufacturing market beyond NVIDIA. Literally the whole chip world doesn't work without them. So the it's ironic as a monopoly like entity they own the market and sales in a time of tech boom, but as a monopoly people are scared of something going wrong and everything collapsing similar to openAI. Too much debt and cost leverage by other companies like openAI so people are wary. That said they have no where else to go even if they wanted to so TSMC up and up long term.
MU- Micron tanked on their earnings, they actually met expectations. I think that says enough about the financial fear and risk of the chip market being made by banks and big money mergers and buys. That said Micron has produced and is another major hitter in AI and chips. They recovered from their earnings loss and scare from investors and honestly I do think some of it was insider based but either way they are back up and have been consistently yearly and will continue to be minus some Taiwanese disaster.
AMAT- Applied Materials another big hitter in AI and chips as they handle alot of the yep you guessed it applied materials. That said there are geo-political risks here. Much like the entire ai and chip market its a bet on financial production rather than collapse, but the more risky deals like openai's and over buys the more fluctuation. That said still up and likely to be YOY as things progress long-term.
ASML- Same thing. Everyone is just trying to catch the proper trend and winner in the industry as someone is going to come out a giant from this whole ai chip market.
AMD- Same thing people are pumping out overbuys as they are predicting a result similar to MU earnings which scared some people. That said up and up long term.
